Recency Bias – Chasing Yesterday’s Winner

A 45-year-old healthcare executive from Dallas contacted me during a period when artificial intelligence and technology stocks seemed to dominate headlines. Her colleagues discussed enormous gains at conferences and networking events. Financial media celebrated innovation almost daily. Everywhere she looked, someone appeared to be making money in technology. She felt like she was falling behind and wanted to shift a large portion of her diversified portfolio into the sector immediately.

Beneath the excitement was a fear that many investors experience. She wasn’t afraid of losing money. She was afraid of missing out. Years of strong returns had convinced her that technology would continue outperforming indefinitely. We reviewed market history together and examined periods when dominant sectors eventually cooled. More importantly, we shifted the conversation away from headlines and back to her long-term goals, family priorities, and retirement objectives.

Ultimately, she maintained a diversified portfolio instead of making a concentrated bet. About a year later, she thanked me for encouraging patience. What she truly needed wasn’t a new investment strategy. She needed perspective. Recency bias can make yesterday’s winners seem like tomorrow’s certainty, and one of our most valuable roles as advisors is helping clients maintain that perspective.

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